Forrester just released some research on interactive marketing trends in the US. Predicting a decline in total ad spend, they say that there will be a substantial shift to other channels. As with mobile marketing predictions, I am always skeptic about putting numbers, as the only certain thing is that they will never be right. Every research organization has a different definition on the categories of mobile and social media. But as with any major trend change, leading research organizations contribute to the prophecy coming true.
Forrester’s prediction that the mobile marketing market in the US to be 391m seems to be wildly underestimated. However, numbers are numbers and what matters is whether you believe the trend.
My personal experience with ad agencies is that they at present simply do not have the capabilities and understanding in place to take their clients to the next stage in social media marketing. I think Forrester’s predictions are too optimistic in the short term, but I think there will be a massive increase in the long term. The main reason is that user’s have far outrun the marketing industry in their update and use of social media. But agencies are driven by money, and as long as their client’s are not demanding anything new, they are happy not to rock the boat and to keep charging for traditional campaigns.
As with any new trend though, specialist companies and start-ups are the ones leading the way, to later be acquired by the big groups. Unfortunately, it definitely seems like the overall climate is tough right now for start-ups and looks to be tough for some time, although most experts agree that now is the time to start-up something new. But if anyone has statistics on the number of companies starting up with social media marketing as their main business, feel free to share, as that will certainly provide the best indication of whether Forrester is on track with their predictions.
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