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New (somewhat useless?) stats on Android usage

Nielsen recently released some new statistics on Android uptake in the US. It shows that Android users skew towards a younger segment, with 50% of buyers being below 35:

What does this mean for marketers, developers and media companies?  Absolutely nothing in my opinion.  Android will become the dominant OS simply based on the support it has among handset vendors, iPhone will always have  a strong loyal following – and everyone is just watching to see if Symbian will simply go away. You will need to address all devices whether with apps, services or sites regardless, and if you want to know if you need to change your messaging based on OS, I’d rather look at this image (courtesy of Gizmodo) to determine what to do than any stat put out by a research firm:

Posted in The Business of Mobile.

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Video on mobile still an analyst favorite

Wedbush latest report on mobile video usage offers more predictions on the upcoming explosion on mobile video. The report brings up some interesting items on these predictions:

  • There is a massive expectation in growth where video will equal 66% of mobile data traffic in 3 years (at least according to Cisco), with a 28x growth from 2008-2012 (according to Yankee Group)
  • The growth expectations do not match expectations in revenue growth (15% CAGR in the period)

But look at the charts side by side in terms of growth in phone accessing the internet regularly and the estimates in mobile data traffic, and you really see the disconnect (click to see larger version):

Growth in Data

Phones Accessing the Internet

(Source: Yankee Group, Cisco, Wedbush)

The growth in handsets going online is according to the chart expected to roughly grow by 17% YOY from 2010-2013, while growth in data consumption in the same period is expected to grow 222% YOY! The differences in the growth curve between the two obviously assumes a sudden massive uptake of mobile video in the next 3 years among existing and new handset owners. But unless Hollywood suddenly throws gigantic production budgets behind small screen entertainment formats, or the NFL switches Monday Night Football to mobile only, this is not likely to happen.

Furthermore, the facts are the networks are already congested in many markets today, and upgrades are expensive and time consuming.  Anywhere near a demand predicted by Cisco will strangle many networks, and as I have argued before, if the quality of service is not there, demand will not be there, regardless of how much you like Monday Night Football.  Wedbush makes a strong case for data optimization technologies, and this space will be interesting to watch. I was part of launching a streaming video player back in 2001 where we streamed Big Brother in Sweden on GPRS speeds. My company, Mobile Media, dropped development on the technology at the time to refocus the product line, but the thinking was right back then with regards to data optimization, and it looks to be so in the future.

Posted in Mobile Entertainment, The Business of Mobile.

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Mobile games/app developer? Fear not, the revolution in publishing will create a new bonanza

A nice little funding round of $46m of the educational tablet maker Kno was announced last week.  Why is this relevant? Well for one, the demo on the site is fantastic (my wife, who publishes textbooks for high school was hypnotized by it), and it shows the true power of the tablet.  I have been an iPad owner only for a couple of weeks, and must admit I was very sceptical about whether this was just simply just an easier gadget to surf the web with.  That was after I had had a chance to play with Flipboardand read Sports Illustrated magazine. The apps represent examples of how you can redefine a horrible web experience (Twitter) into an amazing ever evolving magazine on one hand, and how you add multimedia, interactivity and seemless blend with web content on the other hand.

Goodbye Textbooks?  Hello Kno!

Apple, although not the first to release touch screen mobile phones, redefined how you interacted with the device, and with the iPad, using your hands to control what you see, and using apps to complement web experiences lays the ground for developers and publishers to create truly genious content experiences. And with Kno (or the promise of the format that is), it is readily apparent that the world of educational publishing is about to be rocked harder and faster than photography did – and many in publishing will study hard what Kodak did to turn around its business (of course, the follow up from Kodak since the article was written has not been great, with the shareprice going from 26 to 3, but the lessons in the article are valid).

What is quite clear, although you cannot see it in the Kno demo, is that there will be a lot of social and collaboration tools built right into the course material, and the experiences from social media will be brought into the learning evnironment as an integrated part already from the publisher side, working along side with learning institutions own efforts in this area.

So how does this apply to app developers? Well, consider another massively emerging trend, which is that of social gaming.  Recent studies show social gaming is exploding in popularity and is providing a real revenue streamfor social networks (also evidenced by Google’s latest acquisition spree).

Add the fact that gaming is increasingly being seen as a major educational tool. It has been around for ages of course (I not so fondly remember selling Vodites at business school. Long story. You don’t really want to know), and organizations such as the US Military rely heavily on it both for recruiting and learning.

It is not too much of a stretch to imagine a convergence of the trends, and you will see that gaming, especially in a social sense, will eventually be embedded in educational course material – and the need to present the experience across devices is what will enable a new era for the mobile games developer.  The combination of the tablet and the mobile is what will enable a true “always on” educational experience, and learning is no longer limited to a student sitting by their desk with their books at hand – as the access to the course material will soon always be with you. 

And those that do well are those that handle the user experience well. While you may have gotten away with with dodgy J2ME games 5 years ago, the iPhone raised the bar forever on what users expect, and the tablet experience raises the bar even further.  So next time an MBA student raises the price on his company’s Vodites, expect a real time response from another student who just got a push notification on his phone. Because that is how the real world will work and in some respect is already working.

Posted in Other.

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